By Kenneth Christian L. Basilio, reporter
China may be preparing to build islands in the Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea, analysts said over the weekend, bolstering its sweeping claims to the waterway and escalating regional tensions.
He said the Philippines should prepare its diplomatic and military toolkit to prevent potential land reclamation along the coast, which could reshape the strategic balance in the disputed waters.
“A militarized outpost at Scarborough Shoal would be a serious security blow to the Philippines,” defense economist Rocio Salle Gatdula said in a Facebook Messenger chat. He said this would put key military bases within the range of Chinese missiles.
He said it would allow China to “restrict Philippine and US forces from further monitoring and potentially operating in the Luzon Strait”, a key waterway between Manila and Taiwan, which China claims as its own separate province.
Scarborough, which Manila named Panatag and China called Huangyan Dao, is at the center of renewed tensions between the countries who have competing claims over features in the South China Sea, where trillions of dollars of trade passes each year.
The shoal is a vast fishing lagoon that lies within the Philippines' 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone and was seized by China in 2012 after a standoff with Philippine forces.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. said last week that Manila was not ruling out possible Chinese island-building activity in Scarborough Shoal following Beijing's nature reserve plan.
In September, China approved the creation of a 3,500-hectare reserve on the shoal's northeastern rim, which it said was aimed at preserving the ecological diversity of one of the most disputed areas in the strategic waterway.
“By declaring only the northeast portion of Scarborough Shoal a 'nature reserve,' China has given up the option to build on other parts of the area,” Raymond M. Powell, director of Sealight, a maritime transparency group focused on the South China Sea, said in a Messenger chat.
Ms Gatdula said Beijing's reserve plan could be used as a cover for land reclamation, adding that there were “numerous indicators” that China was trying to create an artificial island in Scarborough, such as floating barriers and buoys within the facility.
The Chinese Embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a Viber message seeking comment.
“It's reminiscent of what China did on Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross Reef,” he said.
China has built man-made islands in several submerged locations in the strategic waterway despite opposition from neighboring countries, equipping them with runways, hangars, radar systems and ports that could bolster its naval presence in the resource-rich waters.
Ms Gatdula said allowing China to build and militarize an artificial island in the Scarborough Shoal could increase regional instability and risk conflict between Beijing, Manila and its treaty ally Washington.
“The result is an expansion of China's de facto control over international waters and airspace,” he said. “This militarization fosters an environment of instability and increases the risk of unintentionally escalating tensions between China, its neighbors, and U.S. allies.”
The artificial islands have become a key asset for China to project greater power in the South China Sea, Mr Powell said. ,[They have] “It has proven to be an effective power projection platform for taking our paramilitary forces deep into the territorial waters of our neighbours.”
According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, the Chinese military has carved out about 3,200 acres of new land in the heavily contested Spratly Islands since 2013.
“Additionally, the deployment of bombers and warships near the shoal reflects the strategic precondition for a permanent military facility, which aims to close the gap in China's defense triangle of the Paracels and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea,” Ms Gatdula said.
Reuters reported that two Chinese long-range bombers flew east of Scarborough in March.
Sherwin E. Ona, a security analyst and associate professor at De La Salle University, said Beijing's declaration of reserves on the disputed shoal requires a “full court press” from Philippine authorities. They called for a joint response to legal challenges and intensified joint maritime patrols in disputed waters.
“We need to be prepared for an escalation,” he said in a Viber message. “The Philippines needs to be prepared for any eventuality.”
He said the Philippine government should balance “diplomatic-military-political responses” while accelerating its military modernization program, which includes the acquisition of warships and advanced fighter aircraft.
The South China Sea has become a regional flashpoint as Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entire waterway, defying a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that had struck down its broader claims.
