In this role, I often feel a mix of emotions: deep pride in our national journey, regret at the opportunities we failed to seize, and confidence in the direction of our journey today. Despite some historical shortcomings and current challenges, I believe the most difficult phase of our economic journey is behind us. Nigeria has taken a turning point. The path ahead will demand hard work and discipline, but we are firmly on the right track.
“A stable economy is important, but stability alone is insufficient. To deliver inclusive prosperity, we must foster growth in sectors that create jobs and opportunity.”
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office in 2023, Nigeria's economy was on the verge of financial collapse. Slow growth, rising inflation and market distortions such as fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rate regimes had created an environment that scared off investment. The President's mandate was clear – eliminate those market distortions, reward productivity, and create an environment where private investment can flourish.
From crisis to stability
Two years later, the results are clear at the macro level. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 by 4.23 percent. Inflation, though still high, has come down to 18.02 per cent after six consecutive months of decline. The exchange rate has stabilized, and the gap between the official and parallel markets has declined from a peak of nearly 70 percent to about 1 percent. Importantly, foreign reserves have risen above $43 billion, the highest since 2019. These are more than just numbers; They are the foundation for building inclusive growth that benefits every Nigerian.
Despite this, we believe that the economy is ultimately about people, not statistics. Millions of Nigerians measure progress by the cost of food, transportation and other necessities. I am well aware of this reality. Food inflation has been the biggest burden on us after currency devaluation and removal of fuel subsidies. However, targeted measures are beginning to ease the pressure. A bag of rice cost about ₦120,000 last year, now the average price is about ₦80,000. The prices of garri, pepper, tomato and other essential commodities have also come down.
At the same time, we are also careful to ensure that our small farmers have adequate incentives to return to the fields in the next planting season. That's why we are implementing programs that encourage agricultural production by protecting the income of small farmers.
Additionally, 8.1 million households across the country have received direct cash assistance from the government to help meet basic needs. It is more than a safety net; This ensures that the impact of these needed reforms reaches the most vulnerable among us, while we continue to resolve the identity verification issues necessary to reach our goal of 15 million households.
Bitter truth on debt and revenue
The progress we have made does not diminish the difficult realities we still face. Debt servicing costs remain heavy, consuming a larger than ideal share of our revenues. This is a result of past borrowings and high interest rates. At the same time, Nigeria's fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio, at about 10 percent after revaluation, remains one of the lowest in Africa. This limits government resources for essential services such as health, education and infrastructure.
On 26 June 2025, the President signed the new Nigeria Tax Act and companion laws into law to take effect on 1 January 2026. These reforms aim to broaden the tax base, simplify compliance and reduce leakages, as well as introduce a more progressive tax regime that shields lower earners and adjusts rates for higher earners. Together with structural revenue reforms such as the Revenue Optimization and Assurance Program (RevOp), these measures will strengthen revenues, create fiscal space and support greater investment in our people and infrastructure.
Promote development in real areas
A stable economy is important, but stability alone is insufficient. To deliver inclusive prosperity, we must promote growth in sectors that create employment and opportunities. We are providing the necessary incentives to revive investment in the oil and gas industry. With improved security, oil theft has decreased, and production has reached 1.68 million barrels per day, including condensate. Refinery projects are setting the stage for a strong downstream sector.
In agriculture, we are boosting food supplies, reducing dependence on imports and ensuring farmers' security and access to markets. We are encouraging investment in factories and strategic value chains, creating employment for our young and dynamic workforce. We are investing in technology and the creative sector to harness the energy of our youth and position Nigeria as a hub of innovation. Furthermore, we are expanding exports beyond oil by tapping global demand for critical minerals.
Infrastructure is the backbone of development. Public money alone cannot meet Nigeria's vast needs, so we are attracting private capital through public-private partnerships. The 90,000 km fiber expansion of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano Gas Pipeline, and Project Bridge are examples of how we are laying the groundwork for industrialization and nationwide connectivity.
Restoring confidence at home and abroad
As I begin to conclude, the clearest sign that Nigeria is on the right track is the return of confidence. Investors – domestic and foreign, multilateral institutions and ordinary citizens are again starting to believe in the country's prospects. But confidence is fragile. Sustaining this requires a predictable policy environment, disciplined fiscal management and steady progress in reducing inflation.
Our medium-term target is 7 percent growth by 2027/28. Achieving this will require not only government action but the full participation of the private sector, entrepreneurs and citizens. I am confident that if we work together we will not only meet this goal but also exceed it. Therefore, the task ahead is to deepen resilience, broaden opportunities and ensure that reforms translate into real improvements in daily life – better schools, affordable food, reliable electricity, accessible healthcare and jobs for our youth.
Then, we can rest assured that Nigeria's next decade will be one of shared prosperity and renewed hope.
Welle Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy.
