Sanae Takaichi has created history by becoming the first female Prime Minister of Japan. However, this was hardly a victory for feminist or progressive politics.
Takaichi is a right-wing ultraconservative whose policy positions draw from a traditionalist perspective on the role of women, Japanese history, and society more broadly.
Emphasizing the importance of strong economic growth, she holds an anti-immigrant stance similar to conservatives and right-wing populists around the world, defending “national identity and traditional values”.
However, far from solving Japan's economic problems, policies restricting immigration lead to labor shortages and inflation.
Japan is like a coal mine for many developed countries facing demographic crisis due to falling birth rate. Japan's population has been declining for 16 consecutive years.
Unless Takachi takes a more pragmatic approach on immigration, his tenure may be one of economic stagnation and relative decline.
How did Takaichi become Prime Minister?
Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) earlier this month. However, his bid to become Prime Minister was delayed when the LDP's junior partner, the Komeito Party, withdrew from the governing coalition due to the LDP's handling of a political funding scandal.
The LDP has minorities in both the upper and lower houses of Japan's Diet, or parliament, and needs coalition partners to govern.
After extensive negotiations that would have required compromise from all parties, the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, agreed to support Takaichi and his LDP-led government.
However, the new coalition is still two seats short of a majority in the lower house and will need additional parliamentary support. This means that Takaichi's minority government will be more uncertain and constrained than previous governments.
Japan's demographic crisis
Japan's population peaked at approximately 128 million in 2008 and has been in steady decline since then. It is about 124 million today.
Last year, the fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) fell to a record low of 1.15.
Under current projections, Japan's population is expected to fall to 87 million by 2070 and to 63 million by 2100, when only half the population will be of working age.
So the issue is not just of declining population but also of aging population with rising pension and medical costs. Many professions in Japan such as teachers, doctors and caregivers are already facing a severe labor shortage.
Immigration as a political lightning rod
While previous governments acknowledged that population decline is a significant problem, they have done little to address the issue. Various initiatives have brought foreign residents or workers into the country, but there has been a reluctance under LDP governments to launch programs with the scale and commitment to bring about a significant change – in terms of integrating immigrants into Japanese society.
This means that these programs have achieved only modest success. The number of foreign-born residents in Japan reached a record high of 3.6 million this year, accounting for about 3% of the population. But this is much lower than many other developed economies.
This increased foreign population has resulted in record numbers of “foreign” children being born in Japan, with Chinese, Filipino and Brazilian mothers topping the list. It has some degree of omarginal forceDetermine the declining statistics of newborns of Japanese parents.
Japan's tourism industry is also booming, with nearly 37 million tourists visiting last year.
Overall, the increasing number of foreigners in Japan has resulted in the rise of anti-immigrant parties and policies, including the far-right Sensito Party. This, in turn, prompted the LDP to move further to the right to avoid losing votes to Sansito and other populist parties.
This partly explains why Takachi's nationalist rhetoric has resonated with the old conservative LDP base.
Takachi advocates for foreign workers in designated areas where there is a labor shortage in the country, although under strict criteria (such as Japanese language ability, training, and inspection). And she opposes mass resettlement of immigrants, or granting political rights to foreign residents on a large scale.
Although his policies have so far lacked detail, he has described foreigners as a threat to national unity that needs to be strictly controlled.
Pro-natalist policies were pursued instead
Around the world, older populations are more vulnerable to anti-immigrant scare campaigns from right-wing conservative media and politicians.
Japan is no exception. Therefore, politicians like Takachi see electoral benefits in portraying immigration and foreigners as threats to social harmony or cultural heritage.
Unfortunately, as a result, the older countries that need immigration the most, such as Japan, are often the most resistant to it.
Instead, many right-wing conservatives in these countries promote pro-natalist policies – encouraging women of the dominant racial or ethnic group to have more children – as a solution that expands the population and maintains cultural and racial homogeneity.
Hungary is one such example. The right-wing nationalist government of Viktor Orbán has provided generous financial benefits to parents at the cost of about 5% of Hungary's GDP. Although Hungary's birth rate in 2023 was above the European average, it has declined since then.
Conservatives are pressuring Japan to adopt a similar pro-birth approach rather than relying on increased immigration.
With Takaichi as prime minister, Japan is unlikely to see improvements in women's freedom and status in society, a significant increase in the birth rate, or an increase in immigration. Japan's demographic crisis is therefore set to continue, and will likely worsen in the near future.
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Adam Simpson is a visiting scholar at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University. He is a Senior Lecturer in International Studies at the University of South Australia.
