By Chloe Marie A Hufana, reporter
One analyst said that unless the scrutiny begins to reach senior political and business figures, Philippine anti-corruption efforts risk losing their deterrent effect, a failure that could further undermine public trust and shape behavior within the government in the years to come.
According to professor of political science at the University of Makati Anderson DT, the public is less troubled by the absence of arrests than by the pattern in which enforcement actions fall short of individuals with real political or economic weight. Tapia said.
Unless the threshold changes, accountability will continue to be considered conditional, he warned, casting doubt on how far future investigations will go.
“People feel that way, even if they don't always express it in sophisticated and legal terms. There's a quiet question that hangs in the air: How far does accountability really go?” he said via Facebook Messenger.
President Ferdinand R. The country is investigating a billion-peso flood control scandal after Marcos, Jr. exposed that high-ranking public officials were colluding with private contractors to receive bribe money in return.
So far, only former public works officials and government contractors have been jailed since the President gave the green light to unusual flood control projects in August.
As climate risks deepen and infrastructure spending increases, Mr Tapia said unresolved questions about responsibility could deepen public skepticism.
If this perception is not addressed, it could gradually change how citizens and officials engage with institutions. Mr Tapia said confidence may not fall suddenly, but a slow decline is expected, with anti-corruption campaigns increasingly seen as symbolic.
Over time, this risks weakening their ability to prevent misconduct as governments undertake larger and more complex public works programs.
Mr Tapia said political patronage and elite networks are likely to remain the decisive factors, unless reforms delay and distance from accountability disrupt the benefits.
Those with political and economic capital often do not need to intervene directly, he said, because lengthy investigations and procedural complexity may be enough to reduce the urgency and public pressure.
Looking ahead, Mr. Tapia warned that predictable enforcement outcomes could reshape incentives within the bureaucracy. Lower-level officials may face immediate risks, while those closer to power will remain untouched, reinforcing the uneven risk landscape.
“Once that pattern becomes predictable, it stops inhibiting the behavior,” he said. “It starts to shape it.”
For the government, Mr Tapia said, the credibility of future anti-corruption campaigns will depend on whether accountability clearly extends beyond familiar boundaries.
Without that change, he warned, honesty may remain part of official rhetoric, but proximity to power will continue to be seen as a safe long-term strategy.