By Alexandria Grace C. Magno
Philippine Stock Exchange According to analysts, the PSE main index is likely to consolidate or move sideways this year amid the ongoing uncertainty.
Juan Paolo E. Collet, managing director of China Bank Capital Corp., said that as of today, if governance issues are resolved and GDP grows, the PSE index (PSEI) could reach the level of 6,700. Product (GDP) growth remains above 5%.
“If we see a sustained trend of GDP growth above 5% along with decisive action on governance issues then there are chances that the market could rise to 6,600-6,700,” he said in a Viber message. “Conversely, if economic growth stalls or the index risks falling back to 5,600 or lower “Fresh governance concerns emerge.”
Economic managers expect GDP growth of 6-7% this year, slightly faster than the target of 5.5-6.5% in 2025.
Corruption scandals involving unusual flood control projects have already shaken investor confidence and slowed economic activity last year.
An independent commission is still investigating allegations that government officials, lawmakers and contractors received billions of pesos in bribes from unusual projects.
Flood control disturbances have affected the stock market, which fell in 2025. The PSEi closed lower on Monday – the last trading day of 2025 – at 6,052.92, down 7.29% or 475.87 points from 6,528.79 at the end of 2024.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael L. Ricafort said the markets could sustain gains above 6,000 if anti-corruption measures and governance reforms are seriously pursued.
“Local market sentiment was recently largely supported by S&P's latest AFFThe findings on the Philippine credit rating and positive outlook show that the country’s economic and credit fundamentals remain intact despite geopolitical risks, the Trump factor and recent local political noise,” Mr. Ricafort said in a Viber message.
In November, S&P Global Ratings maintained the Philippines' long-term “BBB+” and short-term “A-2” ratings with a “positive” outlook, noting that growth prospects remain solid despite the corruption scandal.
The “BBB+” sovereign rating is one notch below the “A”-level grade targeted by the government, while the positive outlook means the Philippines' credit rating could be raised within 24 months if improvements continue.
AP Securities, Inc. Equity research analyst Shawn Ray R. Atienza said the PSEI could be stuck between the 6,000 and 6,400 levels as weak manufacturing, slowing consumer spending and tight infrastructure disbursements could hamper growth.
“In contrast, we expect mining stocks' fourth-quarter earnings of 2025 to ease macroeconomic headwinds and serve as a natural hedge against the weak equity market and the depreciating peso,” he said.
The peso closed at P58.79 per dollar on Monday, eight centavos lower than Friday's P58.71. Year-to-date, it has weakened by 94.5 centavos or 1.61% P57.845 close on December 27, 2024.
In a Viber message, Luis A., head of sales for Regina Capital Development Corp. Limlingen said if data shows strong fourth-quarter GDP growth and inflation remains stable, the market could see a “solid recovery, potentially reaching 6,300-6,500”.
Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Lewis O. Tantiangco said the local economy needs positive catalysts to restore confidence and get economic growth back on track.
“This includes inflation remaining under control, a strong labor market, signs that domestic consumption growth is picking up again, investment into the country improving, more progress on investigating the Philippines' corruption issues which will in turn help consumer recovery and Investor confidence,” he said.
F. Marky Karunungan, investment analyst at Yap Securities, said investors are considering political and governance uncertainties, which could impact investment and economic momentum.
“In early 2026, we expect the PSEI to trade in a relatively contained 5,900-6,200 range as the market navigates mixed signals from both the macroeconomic and policy fronts. The 5,900 level remains as key support, while around 6,120-6,200 continues to act as heavy resistance. On the contrary,'' he said in a Viber message.
“Until there is clear visibility on governance clarity, fiscal execution and sustained foreign inflows, our stance will remain wait and see, with a more constructive market outlook on a decisive break above the 6,200 level,” Mr Karunungan said.
Chairman and Chief Executive of PSEFIcer Ramon S. Monzon said Monday that despite the PSEI's decline last year, there are reasons to be optimistic this year.
“If our government succeeds in its campaign to hold the corrupt accountable and bring about real and lasting improvements in transparency and governance, our market should be one of the best performing markets in the region next year.” he said in a statement on Monday.
IPO action
The Philippine stock market may still face limited initial public offering (IPO) action in 2026, as some analysts predict there will be no more than four listings.
“We may have a maximum of four IPOs in 2026. The most likely candidates are in the REIT and defensive sectors,” Mr. Collett said, noting that proposed changes to real estate investment trust (REIT) rules and lower interest rates may prompt some sponsors to move forward with REIT IPOs.
In November, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a draft memorandum circular proposing updates to REIT rules to broaden the definition of income-producing assets, extend sponsors' reinvestment deadlines, and strengthen disclosure and governance requirements.