According to Samson Itodo, Executive Director of YIAGA Africa, Nigeria's democratic institutions are coming under increasing strain as political actors shift focus from governance to the initial state of affairs ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Itodo said increasing elite dealings, premature campaigns and changing political alliances were already shaping the political environment, despite the fact that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not lifted the ban on campaigning.
He disclosed this in a statement on Tuesday, saying the trend reflects a recurring pattern in Nigeria's election cycle, where governance slows down as electoral ambitions take center stage.
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He said, political activities related to the next elections started immediately after the 2023 elections.
According to him, this indicates weak accountability and strong impunity that could undermine the credibility of the 2027 vote.
He further said that INEC will face a preliminary test in 2026, with three major elections scheduled. These include the Federal Capital Territory Council elections and governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states.
Given their strategic importance as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 general elections, the contests are expected to be highly competitive.
Itodo said the conduct of these elections is widely considered critical to restoring or undermining public confidence in the electoral process, noting that a credible result can energize voters, while a flawed result can deepen apathy and distrust.
The legislative reforms are incomplete, he said. However, proposed amendments to the Electoral Act, which are expected to culminate in the Electoral Act 2026, include mandatory electronic transmission of results and other measures aimed at improving transparency.
Concerns remain that elections are being used to consolidate existing power rather than reflect voters' preferences. Since assuming office, the INEC Chairman has outlined principles focused on independence, impartiality, transparency and inclusivity.
Whether these commitments will translate into practice remains a central question, Itodo said.
One of the most important threats identified is the shrinking of political competition. He warned that induced defections and the weakening of opposition parties risked limiting voter choice and discouraging participation.
Itodo cautioned that limiting political space could tilt Nigeria toward one-party dominance, which could have serious implications for democratic legitimacy.
Election doubts are also deepening. While interest in voting remains high, many Nigerians believe that election results are predetermined. This perception is driven by irregularities recorded in recent elections, including disputed polling unit results, failures of the Bimodal Voter Verification System (BVAS) and discrepancies on the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IREV). Political defections framed as an inevitable path to victory further reinforce doubts about the power of the ballot.
Security challenges add another layer of risk. Insurgency, banditry, communal violence and separatist tensions are taking a heavy toll on security agencies. Insecurity can suppress voter turnout, limit the deployment of election personnel, and disenfranchise voters in conflict-prone areas.
Analysts argue that addressing these challenges will require coordinated action across institutions and society. A firm and independent INEC is seen as central in enforcing rules particularly on party governance, candidate verification and results management.
Civil vigilance is also considered necessary. High voter turnout and active monitoring at polling units are seen as the strongest deterrents against manipulation, as political actors have the most to gain when voters are away.
The role of security agencies is equally important. Electoral credibility depends on neutrality and professionalism. The Inter-Agency Advisory Committee on Election Security has been urged to adopt a framework rooted in constitutional integrity rather than partisan interest.
Itodo warned that Nigeria's trajectory towards 2027 will be shaped by the interaction of these forces, adding that the choices made now will determine whether the country strengthens its democratic foundations or slides further into electoral authoritarianism.
