By Justin Irish D. Tabile, reporter
PHILIPPINE AUTOMOTIVE SALES CAN Sales in 2025 will reach 500,000 this year if interest rates improve after falling short of industry targets, analysts said.
Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. A joint report sent by Truck Manufacturers Association (CAMPI) and Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA) on Friday showed that 463,646 cars were sold last year, down 0.8% from 467,252 units sold in 2024.
Including other industry data, CAMPI said total vehicle sales in 2025 stood at 491,395 units, up 3.7% from 473,842 a year earlier.
In December alone, CAMPI-TMA members sold 42,870 units, up 2% from 42,044 units sold in the same period a year ago.
“The industry recorded modest growth last year due to the overall unfavorable market environment during the second half due to a number of factors such as reimposition of excise duty on pickup trucks and several natural disasters across the country,” CAMPI said.
Jonathan L. Reyes, Senior Counsel, Tacundong & Co. Ravelas said the slight decline in car sales last year reflected “stagnation more than a recession.”
“Still, elevated interest rates, fuel prices and tight household budgets have made buyers cautious, especially for passenger vehicles, which are more discretionary,” he said in a Viber message.
“That's why CAMPI fell short of the 500,000 target – the demand didn't disappear; it was delayed,” he said.
According to industry reports, passenger car sales are projected to fall 23.1% to 92,924 in 2025 from 120,770 in 2024.
In December alone, passenger car sales declined 20.9% to 8,009 units from 10,125 units sold in the same period a year ago.
Commercial vehicle sales, which account for about four-fifths of total industry sales, are projected to grow 7% to 370,722 units in 2025 from 346,482 units sold in 2024.
In December alone, commercial vehicle sales rose 8.6% to 34,861 units from 32,109 units sold in the same month in 2024.
GlobalLynx Securities & Stocks, Inc. “The poor performance of passenger vehicles reflects changing consumer preferences and structural changes in the market,” Toby Allen C. Arce, head of sales trading at , Inc., said in a Viber message.
“Buyers are increasingly preferring used vehicles, ride-hailing, or shared-mobility options, especially in urban areas where trafficFIC congestion and ownership costs reduce the attractiveness of owning a private car,” he said.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael L. Ricafort said the decline could also be attributed to the sharp increase in motorcycle sales in recent months.
“[They] It has become a cheaper alternative transportation for some Filipinos in terms of low acquisition cost, maintenance cost, fuel consumption and space requirements,” he said in a Viber message.
He said demand for motorcycles was increasing due to a “boom in delivery and motorcycle taxi services”.
Broken down, Asian utility vehicle sales rose 7.2% to 87,731 units, while light commercial vehicle sales rose 7.2% to 271,630 units.
In 2025, sales of medium-duty trucks declined by 7.1% to 3,690, while sales of light and heavy trucks increased by 3.6% and 20.5% to 6,783 and 888 units, respectively.
“Sub-segments such as 1 tonne+ multi-purpose vehicles contributed to the industry's 2025 performance with a growth of 76.6% compared to 2024,” CAMPI said.
“Models in this range include the Toyota Tamaraw, Mitsubishi L300FB and Isuzu Travis,” it said.
Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. remained the market leader with sales of 229,447 units in 2025, up 5.2% from 218,019 units in 2024. Its market share was 49.49%.
Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corp. ranked second with a market share of 18.72%, with sales falling 2.6% to 86,808 units from 89,124 units a year earlier.
Suzuki Phils, Inc. ranked third. Sales increased by 7.9% to 21,984 with a market share of 4.74%.
Rounding out the top five were Ford Motor Co. Phils., Inc., whose sales fell 22.2% to 21,784 units, and Nissan Philippines, Inc., whose sales fell 23.2% to 20,571 units.
Outlook
Meanwhile, Mr Arce said the industry could reach 500,000 sales this year, but the outlook was still sensitive to economic and policy developments.
“Reaching the 500,000 mark in 2026 will likely depend on a combination of lower financing costs, improved affordability and a clear value proposition to consumers, rather than a broad increase in demand across all vehicle segments,” he said.
In particular, he said the central bank's easy monetary policy has the potential to “unlock pent-up demand from consumers who have postponed purchases into 2025.”
“Continued infrastructure development, fleet modernization and strong business confidence could support commercial vehicle sales, while wider availability of more affordable models and improved supply chains could help revive passenger vehicle demand,” Mr Arce said.
However, he added that “any new inflation pressures, slower economic growth, or a delay in interest rate cuts could again weigh on consumer sentiment.”
“Looking to 2026, if financing conditions ease and earnings growth improves, the target of 500,000 units could be achieved,” Mr Ravelas said.
“The main challenges are inflation, exchange rate volatility and expensive debt – but if these ease, 2026 could be the year demand picks up,” he said.
Electric and hybrid vehicles may also boost industry sales this year.
Data from CAMPI and TMA showed that 32,489 EVs were sold in 2025, accounting for 7.01% market share.
Including other available industry data, EV sales reached 58,905 units, representing a 12% market share.
“Sales of combined battery, plug-in hybrids and hybrid EVs are expected to grow 142.5% compared to 2024,” CAMPI President Jose Maria Atienza said in a statement Friday.
“This highlights the growing public acceptance and demand for electrified technologies,” he said.
Mr. Ricafort said better weather conditions in 2026 could help boost demand for cars.
He also cited rising demand for EV and hybrid vehicles as potential sales growth drivers amid increasing competition, which is helping to “lower prices and increase choices for Filipino buyers.”