Nigeria's food inflation may fall into single digits for the first time in more than a decade, putting pressure on the household budget due to improved harvests, import rebate policy on selected foods, easing of logistics bottlenecks and a stable naira after years of sharp price rises.
Food inflation in Africa's most populous country eased year-on-year to 10.84 percent in December 2025, a significant decline from nearly 40 percent in December 2024, driven by a revised methodology and lower prices for staple foods such as vegetables and tubers.
The last time Nigeria recorded single-digit food inflation was in May 2015, when prices stood at 9.78 percent.
Also read: How Nigeria can curb food inflation and restore purchasing power – World Bank
Economists surveyed by BusinessDay expect food prices to fall further in January 2026 before official data due on February 15 effectively takes them out of the double-digit mark.
This will align the West African nation with its peers like Kenya and Ghana, which recorded food inflation of 7.8 percent and 3.9 percent respectively in January 2026.
“Food inflation should have been in single digits in December if the consumer price index had not been revised downwards. The revision has resulted in an increase of about 3 per cent across all metrics. Therefore, in the next reading, food inflation should be in single digits on a stronger exchange rate,” Ayo Teriba, chief executive officer, Economics Associates, told BusinessDay.
The softening of food prices comes as the naira recorded its strongest position in 13 years in 2025, gaining 7.5 percent after a tumultuous period that pushed up the cost of imported staples and agricultural inputs.
Low exchange rate volatility has helped dampen price expectations, even as structural weaknesses, including poor storage, insecurity in farming communities and high logistics costs, are limiting the pace of deflation.
If food prices reach single-digit levels, policymakers are likely to welcome a recession, as food accounts for more than half of Nigeria's consumer price basket and has been a major driver of macro inflation.
Also read: Food inflation falls for fifth consecutive month to 11.08% in November
According to Center for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) CEO Muda Yusuf, the sustained decline could give the central bank enough room for another rate cut later this month, which would provide some relief to the economy grappling with weak consumer demand.
“Although the CBN has been very cautious with regard to interest rates based on the inflation trajectory, I expect there should be at least some margin reduction in interest rates at the next meeting,” Yusuf said.
Boon for consumers, pain for farmers
Nigerians admit to seeing relief in the cost of living as a result of the decline in food prices. A BusinessDay market survey in Nigeria's megacity Lagos reveals consumer enthusiasm over falling food prices across many price ranges.
“I can confirm that food prices have fallen,” said Faith Ochonogu, a Lagos-based trader. “Like last year at this time, I was buying food items in pieces, but today, I am able to buy in larger quantities.”
Ochonogu is like many Nigerians who say the drop in food prices has come as a huge relief to their families. “My family is happy. They can eat without thinking too much. I am even able to buy a bag of rice, which I was not able to buy last year,” she told BusinessDay.
By early 2025, a bag of foreign rice will cost an average of N88,000 depending on the brand type in different markets in Africa's most populous country. However, today the same foreign rice costs an average of N57,00o. This represents a decline of 54 percent in one year.
Also read: Kenya's food inflation at 6-month low despite deepening drought
Similar trends follow other food items as well. Prices for a large basket of tomatoes at Mile 12 Market have fallen by 65 per cent to an average of N35,000, down from about N100,000 a year ago.
“It is a blessing that I can now buy food without the fear of going broke,” Patience Emmanuel, a Lagos-based trader, told BusinessDay. “I recently bought tomatoes and the quantity was very high for the price. I am happy.”
But while consumers are seeing relief, farmers are counting losses. The import rebate policy led to a decline in food prices, leading to the largest post-harvest and financial losses in Nigeria's agricultural sector.
