This week, Ghana showed a strong macroeconomic recovery, even as bank profitability rose across Africa, while rising geopolitical tensions led to sharp losses in capital markets. From the exceptional performance of GTCOs in the continent's top gold producer, to record revenues in African banking and growth in MSME lending in Kenya, the sector is proving resilient – though still vulnerable to external shocks, particularly from the Middle East crisis.
Ghana boosts GTCO's supporting income with 77% profit growth
Guaranty Trust Bank Ghana has emerged as the standout performer within Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), increasing profits by 77.3 per cent and becoming the group's fastest growing subsidiary in 2025, overtaking Sierra Leone.
why it matters: Ghana's strong performance underlines the growing importance of regional subsidiaries in the earnings resilience of Nigerian banking groups. It also highlights how currency stability and macroeconomic recovery in key markets such as Ghana are becoming important profit drivers, strengthening the case for deeper pan-African expansion strategies.
Middle East tensions lead to historic selloff on JSE
Africa's largest bourse, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), posted its steepest monthly decline since 2008 in March 2026 as the escalating conflict in the Middle East wiped out more than R3 trillion ($160 billion) in market value.
why it matters: This sharp loss indicates Africa's sensitivity to global geopolitical shocks, particularly through capital market channels. It also raises concerns about foreign portfolio outflows and investors' risk aversion, which could tighten financial conditions in emerging and frontier African markets.
Ghana's inflation falls to four-year low despite oil shock risk
Ghana extended its disinflation streak to a 15th month in March 2026, with headline inflation falling to 3.2 percent – the lowest level in four years – even as pressure from global oil prices increases.
why it matters: Sustained deflation strengthens Ghana's macroeconomic credibility and creates space for monetary easing to support growth. It also positions the country as an anchor of relative stability in West Africa at a time when external shocks – particularly energy prices – are threatening price stability across the region.
African banks outperform global competitors as revenues reach $100 billion
African banks are closing in on a historic revenue milestone, with industry revenues projected to reach $107 billion in 2025, while returns on equity remain higher than the global average, according to McKinsey & Company.
why it matters: The strong profitability of the sector highlights Africa's banking industry as a key engine of economic growth and investor interest. However, the concentration of profits in a few large markets indicates uneven growth and points to untapped opportunities in less accessible areas.
Kenyan banks increase MSME loans to record $2.5 billion
Kenya's banking sector more than doubled its MSME lending target in 2025, disbursing KES326.5 billion ($2.53 billion) in loans – far exceeding its initial target.
why it matters: This surge reflects a structural shift toward small business financing as a core growth strategy for banks. It also signals improvement in credit access for MSMEs, which is important for job creation and economic expansion, especially as low interest rates begin to encourage private sector activity.
chart of the week
