A dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over the Horn of Africa is overshadowing this weekend's African Union summit, although most of the continent's leaders will try to avoid taking sides, nine diplomats and experts said.
What began as a rivalry in Yemen has spread across the Red Sea to a region filled with conflicts – from wars in Somalia and Sudan to the rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea and divided Libya.
In recent years, the UAE has become an influential player in the Horn – primarily involving Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti – through multi-billion dollar investments, strong diplomacy and judicious military support.
Saudi Arabia has been more low-profile but diplomats say Riyadh is building a coalition that includes Egypt, Türkiye and Qatar.
“The Saudis have woken up and realized they could lose the Red Sea,” a senior African diplomat told Reuters. “They slept while the UAE was doing its thing in the Horn.”
Initially focused on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden – both important shipping routes, the rivalry is now reaching further inland.
“Today it is in Somalia, but it is also going on in Sudan, the Sahel and elsewhere,” the diplomat said.
Diplomats said that although these conflicts have strong local drivers, the Gulf's involvement is forcing countries, regions and even warlords to choose a side.
Michael Woldemariam, a Horn of Africa expert at the University of Maryland, said regional actors including Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have become uneasy with the UAE's “strong” foreign policy.
“The Saudis may try to limit or diminish the UAE in the Horn, but it remains to be seen how this will happen,” he said. “The UAE has enormous influence throughout the region – it has an accelerated military presence and dense financial ties.”
Saudi officials say the UAE's activities in Yemen and the Horn threaten their national security.
Senior Emirati officials say their strategy strengthens states against extremists, while UN experts and Western officials argue it has sometimes fueled conflict and empowered authoritarian leaders, a charge the UAE denies.
Officials and diplomats interviewed for this story declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Israel's recognition of Somaliland's independence bid is the biggest example of inflaming tensions so far.
Somalia has severed all ties with Abu Dhabi, accusing it of influencing Somaliland's recognition of Israel. Mogadishu has since signed a defense deal with Qatar, while Turkey has sent warplanes to the capital in a show of force.
Tensions are also rising between African Union host Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea, which have been on the brink of war for months. The Eritrean leader recently visited Saudi Arabia, a visit that analysts interpreted as a sign of Saudi support.
All sources and experts interviewed said that the UAE and Saudi Arabia support opposing sides in Sudan's war. The UAE is accused of providing logistical support to the RSF paramilitary force, while Saudi Arabia's analogous states largely support the SAF.
Saudi ally Egypt has deployed Turkish-made drones along its border with the SAF and used them to attack RSF in Sudan, security officials said.
Analysts said Ethiopia benefits from UAE support, and Reuters found this week that Ethiopia is hosting a base in western Ethiopia where RSF fighters are recruited and trained.
Ethiopia has not commented publicly on the story.
Across the region, Saudi Arabia often works with allies and proxies rather than directly, experts say.
Woldemariam said African countries were likely to tread carefully.
“Even those actors in the Horn who were concerned about UAE influence may be cautious about how much they want to get caught up in the dispute between these two Gulf powers,” he said.
The Horn is not the only crisis on the agenda of the AU summit.
The war continues in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and al Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked insurgencies are spreading across the Sahel region.
But those conflicts are still likely to follow Horn.
Alex Rondos, former EU special representative for the region, said that the Horn has become a supporting region for Middle East rivalry.
“Do the Saudis and UAE … fully understand the implications?”. He said. “Will the Horn of Africa allow itself to be torn to pieces by these foreign rivalries and their African allies?”
