Several trends shape Nigeria's agriculture sector in 2025. These trends moved the food sector in different directions during the year.
First is the high input cost. While food prices declined due to the import rebate policy, farmers were unable to cover rising input costs.
While Nigerians were happy, farmers counted losses due to the rising cost of agricultural inputs such as herbicides and fertilizers.
For many farmers, falling food prices affected their selling prices, eroding the profits they could have made on their commodities.
Experts told BusinessDay that the rise in input prices put pressure on farmers' financial position and forced them to abandon cultivation of some crops like maize and rice as well as cut production.
They argue that the impact of this decision by farmers will be evident in 2026, when shortages may occur due to farmers refusing to cultivate key grains such as maize.
Managing Partner of Prasino Farms, Abiodun Olorundero, said an alternative to large-scale food importation would have been for the Federal Government to subsidize agricultural inputs such as fertilisers.
“The best approach could have been to ensure that they (the federal government) reduce the input costs,” he said.
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increasing imports
Prices of commodities such as rice and maize fell after the federal government announced in July 2024 that some foods would be exempt from import duties.
This policy led to a decline in prices of staple foods across the country. Many more Nigerians can easily support their families. Many others returned to food items they had previously abandoned due to purchasing power.
Commodities like rice, beans, corn and kernels declined significantly. Local rice prices fell from a high of N90,000 to an average of N65,000. Prices of foreign parboiled rice also declined to an average of N62,000 from N92,000.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria spent N3.32 trillion importing food from other countries in the nine months (January-September) of 2025.
But farmers had to pay a heavy price for this. “Farmers were at losses. Some of them started growing vegetables because they became more profitable,” Olorundero said.
insecurity
At the beginning of the year, agriculture experts confirmed that there was a significant decline in bandit attacks, one of the biggest challenges facing Nigerian farmers. Frightened by this, farmers started returning to farming.
“Insecurity has reduced significantly. We are seeing farmers returning to the farms,” Ibrahim Kabiru, former president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, said in an interview with this reporter in January.
But everything changed when fresh attacks by herdsmen in Benue State displaced farmers, leaving many homeless and farmers afraid to return to the farms.
These strategic attacks by bandits on rural communities in the North-West, South-West and Middle Belt disrupted the food supply chain from rural communities to various markets.
More than 5,000 people are expected to be killed in Benue between 2023 and 2025, according to armed conflict location and incidence data.
In many other states such as Kwara, Zamfara and Niger, kidnapping has become a new business that has stripped communities of skilled workers, including farmers.
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Climate change
Heavy rainfall in 2025 positively impacts agriculture sector. Persistent rainfall resulted in many food chains recording good harvests.
“It is December and it is still raining,” Olorundero began. “This shows that the weather was favorable this year.”
At the beginning of the year, commodity exchange platform AFEX predicted that favorable weather conditions, including strong rainfall, were likely to increase rice supplies in Asia and India.
The forecast came as cashew farmers recorded their biggest harvest in years.
However, it also had a negative impact on the sector. Torrential rains caused floods that destroyed thousands of hectares of agricultural land in Nigeria.
Initial estimates from the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) did not predict the losses to farmers. There was loss of life and property. As a result, hundreds of people were displaced from their homes.
In May, floods hit Mokwa in Niger, known for rice and millet production, destroying farming communities, and destroying the Mokwa bridge used to transport food trucks.
The destruction of critical infrastructure and more than 25,000 acres of paddy fields and cropland severely impacted regional food supply chains.
