This article is adapted from a presentation I first gave at the Oso Leadership Academy Nigeria Independence Day Masterclass, where I spoke with Nigerian business veterans Juliet Anyama and Austin Okyere about how Nigerian entrepreneurs and institutions can navigate today's turmoil with resilience and foresight.
reality of economic situation
Economic uncertainty in Nigeria can come from macro factors, such as unexpected regulatory changes, political changes, recessions, or currency shocks, or micro realities, such as community conflict, imitative competition, or sudden changes in consumer behavior.
Over the years, drawing inspiration from both individual entrepreneurial ventures and corporate leadership experiences in Nigeria, I have developed a simple yet powerful framework for resilience: the 5 Ps of Surviving the Economic Wahala.
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Prepare and plan – anticipate shocks, build resiliency, ask “What could go wrong that we aren't even thinking about?”
Persist – Endure long enough to find a way forward.
Pivot – Boldly make changes when a model doesn't work.
Partners – Build networks that open doors, support you, and put you closer to the market.
Pragmatism – Stick to local realities, protect people and property and face facts honestly.
“Economic uncertainty in Nigeria can come from macro factors, such as unexpected regulatory changes, political changes, recessions, or currency shocks, or micro realities, such as community conflict, imitative competition, or sudden changes in consumer behavior.”
lessons from the trenches
In the late 1990s, my friend James Capanto and I started Qualita Transport in Jos. The business grew rapidly as we reinvested revenues in expanding our small fleet, which employs about a dozen people. But the Jos crisis in September 2001 changed everything. Most of our drivers were non-indigenous Muslims, and they were targeted in the violence. One was killed, several were beaten and several vehicles were destroyed. It was a devastating reminder that even people who had lived in Joseon most of their lives could misunderstand political and ethnic fault lines. We responded with pragmatism, putting people first and recognizing that our assumptions about safety were wrong, and with a pivot, shifted our capital to smaller stores that could be closed during the crisis and reopened later. That move preserved livelihoods and kept us afloat.
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The story of Afrivan in the early 2000s teaches a different lesson. With secondary school friends like Danladi Verheijen of Verode Capital, Houssam Azem of Lagos Jetski Club and Philip Mshelbila, CEO of NLNG, we launched one of Jos's first bandwidth and internet café companies, adopting the model pioneered in Lagos by friends Mazzuo Nwanele and Paul Kalu. Demand exploded – we had 10,000 registered users in just three months, there were franchised outlets, and even VSAT bandwidth was sold. But the success was short-lived. Copycat competitors cut prices in half indefinitely, and weak regulation provided no protection. We tried to move into phone cards and VoIP and even expanded into Abuja with a $400,000 equity investment from UBA, but that turned out to be the wrong decision. Finally, it would be wise to expand into smaller northern cities. The experience underlined the need for pragmatism in strategy and the value of partnerships that can guide us towards more sustainable development. Even though AfriOne ultimately failed, it gave rise to Joe's technology and music ecosystem, with employees like Jude Abaga (MI) later shaping the industry.
Not all shocks are local. In 2010, Tony Elumelu faced widespread disruption when the Central Bank of Nigeria imposed term limits on bank CEOs. Counting down his years at Standard Trust Bank before its merger with UBA, Tony was forced to step down at just 47 years of age. For many, this may seem like a premature end to an illustrious career. Instead, Tony turned it into Launchpad. He had prepared and planned for life beyond UBA, and he moved decisively into new ventures – founding Heirs Holdings and the Tony Elumelu Foundation, and taking over a controlling interest in Transcorp. His extensive involvement in government and business gave him the impetus to rapidly diversify into oil, hospitality, insurance and agriculture. A regulatory end became the beginning of a much greater legacy.
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) experience in Nigeria since 2015 shows how flexibility can sustain even global players. BCG entered Nigeria with the ambition to take on McKinsey in West Africa, but the timing could not have been worse. The Buhari presidency ushered in recession and the Naira crash, creating a brutal environment for high-cost consulting models. Rather than cut and run, BCG chose to stay put. We kept the team limited, redirected resources to projects outside Nigeria and focused on the long-term situation. At the same time, my Nigerian network helped us partner with state governments in Taraba and Plateau, winning contracts in locations overlooked by global competitors. The carefully orchestrated office launch projected confidence in the face of uncertainty, a prepared move that signaled to clients that BCG was here to stay.
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Market adaptation is another form of shock, and the confrontation between Lumos and Sulfa Energy in 2017 clearly illustrates this. Lumos, an Israeli firm, entered Nigeria with large capital and a solar home system business model imported from Kenya. Although they grew rapidly, their leadership remained foreign, their costs remained high and they failed to understand Nigerian consumer realities. In contrast, Sulfa Energy's Sandra Dozzi took a different approach. He localized assembly, priced products in line with consumers' purchasing power, and tapped into Igbo trading networks to distribute rapidly and widely. His pragmatism and partnerships allowed Salfa to outcompete a firm with far greater resources, proving that in Nigeria, proximity and grassroots tactics often outweigh foreign capital and publicity.
Ultimately, in 2019, the entire budding Nigerian solar sector faced a series of structural shocks, including the inability to realize tariff rebates, rising procurement and import costs, and worsening currency instability. Individual companies were powerless in the face of such systemic obstacles. At All On, we responded by forming a coalition. In partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation, we launched the Demand Aggregation for Renewable Technology (DART) program. By aggregating sector demand, providing naira-denominated loans, and accessing massive import duty relief, we helped build collective resilience where individual companies would have failed. It was a clear demonstration that partnerships and planning can sometimes achieve what no single player can.
last words
The common thread in all these stories is that economic downturns will always occur. Sometimes it explodes in your backyard, like Joe's Crisis. Sometimes it spreads across the country through a recession or sudden regulatory change. Other times it comes quietly, hidden in market changes or structural barriers. None of us can control when and how these shocks come.
But what we can control is how prepared we are and how we respond. This is where the 5 Ps make a difference. Preparation and planning ensure that we never fail. Perseverance keeps the flame alive when everything around us is dark. Moving forward boldly allows us to transform endings into new beginnings. Partnerships remind us that no one survives alone. And pragmatism grounds our choices in reality, ensuring we protect our people, assets and credibility first and foremost.
These are not abstract principles. They are lessons bought at a heavy price – through lost capital, broken dreams and even human lives. But there are also lessons that prove again and again that resilience is possible, that businesses can grow again, and that growth can overcome crisis.
If Nigerian entrepreneurs and leaders adopt these trends, they will not only survive the economic crisis, but thrive despite it – turning setbacks into springboards and crises into catalysts for change. This isn't just good business advice; It is a survival guide for the future of enterprise in Nigeria.
Dr. Wiebe Boer, Chief Development Officer, Zipa Network.
