By Kenneth Christian L. Basilio, reporter
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio's decision to run for president in 2028 is unlikely to derail impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives, a congressman said Wednesday.
“This is a strategic decision to consolidate his followers, especially because there are impeachment complaints against him,” Senior Deputy Majority Leader and Iloilo Representative Lorenz R. Defensor told reporters.
He said the complaints would likely proceed procedurally but might struggle to garner the one-third vote needed in the full session needed to send articles of impeachment to the Senate.
“Right now, I don't see one-third support from members of the House of Representatives,” he said. “But I can tell you it will get to the Judiciary Committee.”
He said the complaints would be referred to a committee to determine adequacy in form and substance. “It will have no impact on how the process will proceed in terms of its hearing, in terms of the deliberations in the Justice Committee,” he said.
Political analysts said the House is expected to proceed cautiously to avoid repeating the missteps that led the Supreme Court to quash earlier impeachment proceedings against Ms. Duterte.
“The House has strong institutional incentives to demonstrate procedural rigor and constitutional fidelity,” Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat ahead of Ms. Duterte’s news briefing on Wednesday, where she announced her presidential ambitions.
A transparent process, he said, could help restore credibility to what some saw as flaws in the earlier impeachment effort.
Ms. Duterte faces three impeachment complaints over the alleged misappropriation of P612.5 million in confidential and intelligence funds allocated to the Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education while she served as secretary.
The complaints are expected to be referred to the House Justice Committee within the time limit set by the High Court after quashing the previous proceedings. The tribunal ruled that the earlier impeachment did not comply with constitutional requirements, including the one-year bar rule.
Edmund S., President and CEO of Political Economy Elemental Researchers and Strategists “The decisive factor in this impeachment is the Supreme Court's decision,” Tayao said via telephone. “This changes everything.”
Last year, more than a third of lawmakers supported a fourth complaint that was sent directly to the Senate, effectively impeaching Ms. Duterte. His trial was halted after the Supreme Court ruled the process unconstitutional.
Mr. Tayao said the decision reshaped the way impeachment is handled, emphasizing due process and clarifying how session days are counted. “The net effect of that decision is that impeachment is no longer primarily a political tool,” he said. “It's not just about numbers anymore. They're evaluating the evidence now.”
Batangas Rep. Gerville R. Luistro, who heads the Justice Committee, earlier said the body would apply strict constitutional standards similar to those used in evaluating the impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., which were dismissed.
Mr. Aguirre said keeping the process based on evidence and due process could reduce the perception that impeachment is being used for partisan purposes. He said documentary records related to budget allocations could strengthen the complaints against Ms Duterte.
Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said the extended hearing could help lawmakers create a clearer factual record. “A long, drawn-out process allows for evidence-building, narrative building and sustained public engagement,” he said via messenger. “This creates space for institutional legitimacy rather than a hasty perception.”
He said as political camps prepare themselves for 2028, impeachment has electoral implications. “A process seen as vindictive may backfire. A process seen as transparent and evidence-driven may reinforce legitimacy.”
Ranjit Singh Rai, an OCTA research fellow and assistant professor at the University of the Philippines, said a prolonged investigation could affect Ms. Duterte's standing as a presidential contender.
“Daily hearings, document disclosures, witness testimony and constant coverage may gradually influence how undecided voters view his viability,” he said in a Viber message.
He said, “When a sitting vice president is not only viable, but leading in the polls, impeachment is no longer viewed simply as an accountability mechanism. It becomes a high-level political decision with presidential-cycle consequences.”
Mr. Marcos is limited to only six years in office and has not yet named a preferred successor, setting the stage for an extended contest as the next presidential election approaches.