… the exchange rate differential between NFEM and BDC will be further reduced
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria's external reserves are projected to increase to $51.04 billion in 2026 due to easing pressure in the foreign exchange market, strong oil income and continued inflows from remittances and foreign investment.
The apex bank disclosed this in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria published on its website on Tuesday, which said the projected reserve level stands at an estimated $45.01 billion in 2025.
The CBN said the expected improvement in external reserves will largely be driven by less pressure in the FX market, based on a combination of higher oil receipts, sovereign bond issuance and stable migrant remittance inflows. It said the ongoing expansion of the nameplate capacity of the Dangote refinery from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and ultimately to 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium term will further strengthen reserve accretion.
According to the bank, recent reforms in the FX market are expected to further increase efficiency and transparency, reduce premiums between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau de Change (BDC) rates, and maintain exchange rate stability. Improvement in domestic refining capacity is also expected to significantly reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports, thereby reducing pressure on reserves.
Nigeria's external balance is expected to remain positive in 2026, supported by strong export growth and steady remittance inflows, the CBN said. It said the projected increase in export earnings depends on growth in crude oil and gas production, as improvements in infrastructure and better security around oil installations boost production.
Overall, the external position is expected to benefit from improving demand conditions in major trading partner economies, reinforced by an anticipated increase in foreign investment.
The current account balance is projected to register a high surplus of $18.81 billion, which will be 11.16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, while the current account balance will be $16.94 billion, or 10.94 percent of GDP, in 2025. This approach is based on stable migrant remittances and increased export receipts.
On the merchandise account, export receipts are projected to grow from $54.59 billion in 2025 to $58.26 billion in 2026, driven by strong oil and non-oil exports. Oil export earnings are expected to improve due to higher domestic crude production, supported by improved security around oil facilities and continued investment in the sector. Moreover, export earnings are expected to increase further with the commencement of export of petroleum products in 2025.
For non-oil exports, the CBN said receipts are expected to be boosted by continued growth in agricultural commodity and fertilizer exports. The recently launched National Export Trading Company, which aims to address persistent gaps in the export value chain, as well as the National Intellectual Property Policy designed to support creative exports are expected to further strengthen non-oil export performance.
Imports are projected to grow from $39.92 billion in 2025 to $43.27 billion in 2026, reflecting projected higher demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs due to strengthening economic activity.
The services account deficit is expected to increase from $12.80 billion in 2025 to $13.68 billion in 2026 due to higher payments for business and transportation services. The increase in payments for business services reflects the growing demand for research and development services in Nigeria, while payments for transportation services are expected to increase in line with the higher freight charges associated with the increase in imports of non-oil goods.
The primary income account is estimated to be in deficit at $8.62 billion due to higher investment income payments to non-resident investors, as relatively attractive yields continue to attract foreign portfolio inflows.
Meanwhile, the positive performance of the secondary income account is expected to continue in 2026, with a projected surplus of $26.13 billion compared to $23.82 billion in 2025. This estimate is based on an anticipated increase in migrant remittances through formal channels, as well as higher flows of general transfers, particularly associated with preparations for national elections.
The CBN said the financial account is expected to remain in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion, reflecting higher portfolio flows and new external borrowing by the government.
