happy new year! This will be a very big political year. There will be party congresses, primaries, conventions, campaigns and more defections in 2026, but keep an eye on these five major political events that will capture national attention and make headlines for much of the year. Number one: The entry of Seyi Tinubu into the Lagos governorship race in the second quarter will be one of the most controversial and divisive political events of the year, threatening to tear Lagos APC to pieces. He will likely be chosen as the unanimous governorship candidate, displacing stalwarts like Presidential Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila and Speaker of the Lagos House of Assembly Mudashiru Obasa. Both men and other candidates will be forced to withdraw from the race for the President's first son, but the protests that will follow his emergence will be reminiscent of the 1991 Dapo Sarumi-Femi Agbalajobi contest in the SDP in the state. The ensuing impasse in the SDP led to the unexpected election of Sir Michael Otedola of the NRC.
Some will defect to other parties in protest, and the ensuing fight will be fierce and incendiary, raising the strong possibility of a reactivation of the ethnic tensions that marked the last gubernatorial election in the nation's smallest but most populous state. Seyi Tinubu has the full support of his father, who has maintained a strong hold on Lagos politics since he was elected governor in 1999. The President decides about everything in Lagos and influences who gets what in the state. His words carry the weight of law, and there is no doubt that he will do everything he can to further tighten his hold on Lagos and hand over the state to his beloved son.
Two, the ADC presidential primary will present another interesting spectacle. After long hesitation and careful deliberations, Peter Obi formally joined the party on New Year's Eve to begin preliminary preparations to challenge Atiku Abubakar for the presidential ticket. He announced this at a rally in Enugu. He defected to the ADC along with Senator Victor Umeh (Anambra Central), Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe (Abia South), Senator Tony Nwonyi and other top politicians from the South-East. There were many other south-east politicians who once dominated the politics of the region under the PDP. The contest between Obi and Atiku will be tough. The former Vice President himself has been preparing for this for years. Rich and well-connected, he is a veteran of several presidential races since 1993. OB's supporters will tout his youth, energy and zoning as his strong points. Atiku will rely on his northern lineage and support base, but the fact that he is running against the well-established principle of rotation will cost him many votes. On the other hand, Obi himself will have to convince many people, especially northerners, that if elected he will serve only for one term. If Atiku chooses the ticket, he will gladly invite Obi as his partner. If Obi rejects the offer, Atiku will find it difficult to find a better replacement, as most potential selections have since moved to APC. But if Obi accepts to contest the elections with Atiku, President Tinubu will face another grueling electoral race. By all standards, the ADC conference will be one of the most exciting events of 2026.
Three, if the US continues bombing terrorist targets in northern Nigeria, it could have dramatic political implications. If the attacks lead to a minimal reduction in terrorist attacks and incidents of kidnapping and banditry, Tinubu's approval ratings will increase, but if high collateral damage is recorded and the perpetrators remain impunity, the President will face serious disapproval. Already, many northern elites have spoken out against US intervention as if they enjoy seeing innocent people bleed, while Christian leaders across the country have welcomed the attacks and praised the US President for coming to their help.
The politics of four rivers in 2026 is also worth watching. The agreement made by President Tinubu between the FCT Minister and Gov Fubara has broken down. Nyesom Wike has vowed to stop Governor Sim Fubara from seeking a second term. The FCT Minister has begun touring the state to campaign for the President and whip up sentiments against the Governor. Fubara is counting on the support of President Tinubu to secure the ticket for a second term under the APC. Wike himself is likely to join APC sometime in 2026, but will Tinubu allow Wike to take his troubles to APC?
Fifth, Akwa Ibom politics will also present another exciting story. With the defection of Governor Umo Eno, the PDP has become vacant, and the state has suddenly become a one-party state. But former Governor Udom Emmanuel is still in the PDP and trying to plot a new direction. He made early efforts to rebuild the PDP in the state, calling meetings, setting up a caretaker committee to manage the party and even attending the party's conference in Ibadan with some supporters from the state. He assisted in the selection of his colleague Ini Emembong as a member of the NWC. But due to the pending litigation, INEC has suspended the recognition of the party faction, leaving the former governor in limbo. During the holidays, he seemed friendly. In his Christmas message, he asked Nigerians to unite around President Tinubu to fight terrorism but did not say a word on his successor. However, he is said to be talking to the Atiku Abubakar group in the ADC for a possible Vice Presidential ticket. A truly exciting year lies ahead of us.
