Nigeria is set for its biggest economic boom in at least a decade in 2026, driven by developments such as the implementation of harmonized tax rules, the long-awaited listing of the giant Dangote refinery and new capital rules for banks and insurers.
These measures are designed to strengthen public finances, unlock new growth and strengthen the financial system's ability to support an economy that is already showing signs of rapid expansion.
Also read: CBN estimates economy to grow 4.49% in 2026 on reform gains
Tax reset to come into effect in Nigeria
One of the turning points in Nigeria's new fiscal era in 2026 is the implementation of controversial tax reforms that aim to increase the country's tax as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) from about 10 percent to 18 percent over the next three years.
While the harmonization of tax rules has generated heated debate and heavy criticism, Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu said the measures, which will be implemented on June 26, 2025 along with additional tax enactments starting on January 1, 2026, will proceed as planned, describing the reforms as a 'once in a generation' opportunity to rebuild the country's fiscal structure.
Key provisions of the reforms include: the introduction of a progressive personal income tax regime, with tax rates ranging from zero percent to 25 percent, and improved deductions that support equitable burden-sharing. Individuals earning N800,000 or less annually are completely exempt from tax.
The policy also provides for a 20 per cent rent reduction limited to N500,000 to reduce housing costs for workers and low-income earners.
bank recapitalization
In 2026, Nigeria's banking industry is expected to enter a forced phase of mergers and acquisitions, as lenders struggle to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recapitalization deadline in March.
The new capital rules aim to build a stronger, more resilient banking sector by significantly increasing minimum capital requirements, enabling banks to withstand economic shocks such as currency devaluations.
It aims to support large-scale economic growth for the $1 trillion economy, lending to key sectors like MSMEs and promoting greater financial stability and inclusion, turning them into global players.
In November 2025, Yemi Cardoso revealed that 16 banks had fully complied with the recapitalization directive. Although he did not name the banks, BusinessDay's review provides clarity. Three of the seven banks with international licenses had already met the minimum paid-up share capital requirement of N500 billion. They are Access Bank, GTBank and Zenith Bank.
UBA is also expected to cross the threshold following a N157.8 billion rights issue. However, the situation is difficult for FCMB. Despite the recently concluded N160 billion public offering, the bank is lagging behind the target. Even if the offer is fully subscribed, FCMB will still need about N52 billion to reach the N500 billion benchmark.
Also read: Five charts show how the Nigerian economy will fare in 2025
However, the bank has indicated plans to sell minority stake in some of its non-banking subsidiaries as part of efforts to bridge the gap and complete its recapitalization programme.
New capital rules for insurers
Insurance companies are also racing to raise their minimum capital to boost the viability of the sector and help it withstand any shocks. However, unlike banking recapitalization, there are nuances around insurance recapitalization.
The first thing to note is that insurers have until June 30, 2026, to meet the new minimum capital requirements. Again, unlike banking recapitalization, where equity capital had to be raised, the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) is not mandating equity raising.
Although infusion of fresh funds through private placement, rights issue or offer for subscription is welcome, it is not the only means. According to the draft guidelines seen by BusinessDay, NAICOM notes that for existing insurers, the minimum capital requirement can be met by deducting its own shares (treasury shares) held by the company from the net assets.
For new insurers, the minimum capital requirement will be limited to highly liquid and safe instruments. These include cash and bank balances, fixed deposits with financial institutions, government bonds and treasury bills.
Possible listing of Dangote Refinery to boost NGX market capitalization
Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote said he will list his $20 billion mega-refinery in 2026, adding that the building with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day will have a market valuation of more than $200 billion.
Dangote said the group is working with regulators, including the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), to ensure that dividends will be paid in dollars after the listing.
The initial public offering, scheduled for 2026, will allow investors to buy stakes in naira but receive returns in hard currency, a rare escape for both local and foreign investors.
“You buy in Naira, but you get dividends in dollars,” Dangote said. He said the payment would be funded by $6.4 billion of estimated revenues from the company's petrochemical exports, particularly polypropylene and fertilizer.
The group intends to sell a 10 percent stake in the refinery and petrochemicals complex to NGX. While international secondary listing remains an option, Dangote stressed that the primary focus is the domestic market.
Also read: Nigeria 2026 economic outlook: What governments, businesses and households need to get right
“We want Dangote Refinery to become the golden stock of the exchange,” he said.
According to Bismarck Raven, managing director of the financial derivatives company, the move, coupled with the possible listing of state-owned oil company Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, will increase the valuation of the country's stock exchange to about N262 trillion next year from N99.2 trillion by the end of 2025.
As part of its expansion strategy, the president said the group would double the refinery's capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, while it currently produces 650,000 barrels per day.
