Nigeria's inflation trajectory has gained new credibility after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) endorsed newly revised consumer price data, following a methodological overhaul by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that aligns inflation measurement with global standards.
The IMF said the December 2025 inflation data released by the NBS points to a continued moderation in prices that could help ease the cost of living and strengthen macroeconomic stability in Africa's most populous country.
“We welcome the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which shows a decline in inflation which, if sustained, will help ease cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability,” the fund said in a statement issued by its Nigeria Resident Representative, Christian Ebeke, on Thursday night.
Also read: What to know about Nigeria's 15.15% inflation rate for December
With the new methodology in place, Nigeria's headline inflation slowed to 15.15% in December, down from 17.33% in November and significantly lower than the 34.80% recorded a year earlier, according to data published by the NBS.
On a monthly basis, inflation declined to 0.54% from 1.22% in November, indicating moderation in short-term price increases due to reduced food and core price pressures.
The easing comes with a significant revision to Nigeria's inflation framework.
The NBS recently recalibrated and reweighted its CPI, using 2024 as the reference year and linking the old index to the new series. The IMF said the change brings Nigeria's inflation measurement in line with international best practice under the IMF's 2020 CPI Manual and the ECOWAS Harmonized CPI framework.
Under the revised approach, inflation is calculated using an average reference period of 12 months instead of one month, a move designed to improve consistency and comparability over time.
As a result of the change in methodology, some previously published inflation figures were revised upward, including the November reading, now revised to 17.33% compared to the earlier estimate of 14.45%. The Statistics Office said relying on a single month basis would distort the data. “The consumer price index for December 2025 increased by 0.7 points from the previous month to 131.2,” the bureau said. Officials said the amendments do not change the broader trend of deflation seen through 2025.
The IMF noted that while changes in methodology may have led to changes in reported levels, the data showed a steady decline in inflation over the year, strengthening confidence in the direction of policy and macroeconomic conditions.
Nigeria's Statistician-General and head of the NBS, Adeyemi Adeniran, said the revaluation reflects updated consumption patterns and economic structure after years of high inflation and currency instability.
“The CPI report focuses on the new CPI base year of 2024 and the weighting reference period of 2023,” he said, noting that the use of a 12-month reference period helps avoid artificial spikes driven by base effects rather than real price movements.
Despite improvements, challenges remain. The 12-month average inflation rate is still high, underscoring the pressure households continue to face after years of rising food and energy costs.
Nevertheless, the IMF's endorsement of both the intuitive approach and the revised methodology is likely to strengthen investor confidence in Nigeria's data reliability and provide a strong statistical base to policymakers as they pursue tight monetary and fiscal coordination to strengthen price stability.
