According to industry experts, Nigeria's agricultural sector faces a mixed outlook in 2026, with a reduction in input costs likely to provide relief to farmers, even as deep challenges around storage threaten to limit profits.
Experts say the differing estimates reflect the complexity of the sector, where improvements in one part of the value chain are often dwarfed by weaknesses elsewhere.
Overall, these factors suggest that Nigeria's food outlook in 2026 will depend less on production alone and more on whether policymakers and private investors can focus on cost relief as well as storage and security.
Also read: Agriculture in 2025: Food supply improves but farmers record losses
input cost
Agriculture experts have suggested that the strategic intervention promised by the federal government could reduce the cost of agricultural inputs.
“The discussions we are having with the government show that they are going to reduce the cost of inputs, especially fertilizers and seeds,” said Muhammad Magaji, president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFN).
Magaji says the estimate is expected to encourage farmers to double down on farming, earn more profits commensurate with their efforts, and increase overall food production.
“They (the federal government) have said they are going to organize a lot of programs this year. With this, I believe we are going to have a bright agricultural year.”
This positive estimate from the AFAN President comes after farmers suffered huge losses due to increased input costs last year. The surge increased the average price of fertilizer by more than 41 per cent to about N50,000.
For much of last year, farmers could not compete with input prices. The cost of seeds and seedlings almost doubled. Prices of herbicides and pesticides increased by more than 20 percent.
Femi Oke, Chairman of the Lagos Chapter of AFN, reiterated that agricultural input prices could fall significantly in 2026 as a result of the Federal Government’s promises.
“The government is paying attention to issues affecting the agriculture sector,” Oke said. “Issues like terrible roads limiting inputs, market access will be dealt with in 2026,” he assured.
Also read: How FG can drive agricultural growth in 2026
storage interval
Although favorable climate led to positive production in many crop value chains last year, they were wasted due to inadequate storage infrastructure.
Experts predict that without sustainable collaboration between the private and public sectors, Nigeria's storage challenge could pose a risk to the sector in 2026.
Agribusiness expert Adesina Laja said agriculture in Nigeria is grappling with infrastructure issues, ranging from poor road networks to poor storage systems in the states.
However, he says that without active intervention the storage gap could reduce the food sector's profits this year.
“40 percent of Nigeria’s food production is wasted,” Laja said. “If we have infrastructure that supports food storage and roads, the region will do well.”
Early last year, tomato farmers suffered an average of N2 billion in post-harvest losses due to inadequate storage. This shows the importance of efficient storage systems in the agricultural sector.
analysts estimate
According to a recent research by CardinalStone, agriculture has received only about five percent of the total banking system credit in the last five years, a clear indication of the need for more credit to increase productivity and improve production.
While pre-existing structural issues remain prevalent, “we expect growth to be slightly higher than in 2025, reflecting improved energy availability and FX stability,” Cardinalstone noted in its 2026 macroeconomic outlook.
The company projects growth in this sector to expand through 2026. “Accordingly, we forecast agricultural growth to be 3 percent in 2026 versus 2.8 percent in 2025.”
