For decades, Nigeria's economic architects and leading entrepreneurs have been laboring under an attractive but dangerous illusion: that innovation is an external good. The prevailing logic suggests that the tools for progress, technological, biological, or systemic, can simply be imported, adapted at the margins, or outsourced to global partners. We extract profits from protected markets while leaving the fundamental work of productivity, research and development (R&D) underfunded and undervalued.
This approach may satisfy short-term quarterly returns, but it has left our national food security structurally exposed. We are attempting to solve 21st century Nigerian problems of climate instability, soil-specific nutrient deficiencies and tropical pest dynamics by using the 20th century “import-and-apply” mentality. In the current global environment, owning innovation is no longer an academic luxury; It is the basis of national stability.
R&D cushion: more than just fertilizer
The urgency of this change is not only real. A recent working paper from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides a sobering analytical lens through which we should view our grain yields. The study confirms what many farmers intuitively know: climate variability, particularly unpredictable rainfall and temperature increases, directly reduces long-term production.
However, the most important takeaway from the IMF data is the stabilizing power of R&D. Countries that make meaningful investments in agricultural research, both in terms of funding and researcher density, are significantly better equipped to mitigate the effects of climate shocks. Interestingly, the study shows that traditional interventions such as expanded irrigation or increased fertilizer use, although important, do not provide the same consistent “shock-absorbing” effect as a strong R&D ecosystem.
This challenges the core of Nigerian agricultural policy. Research and development is not an abstract indulgence; It is an organized, sustained investment in practical knowledge. It's the difference between a farmer discovering a pest after his crop has been destroyed and a monitoring system that predicts outbreaks weeks in advance.
N2 billion warning shot
Consider the recent infestation of sugarcane pests in Kano State. The disaster caused an estimated loss of over N2 billion. These losses were not an “act of God”; They were the cost of a research gap. If there were locally originated surveillance and sophisticated agricultural practices tailored to that specific ecological region, the outbreak could have been mitigated.
“By internalizing R&D, building local research capacity, partnering with domestic universities, and investing in localized data experimentation, companies generate proprietary insights that strengthen their own margins while protecting the broader economy.”
Agriculture contributes about 21 percent to Nigeria's GDP and remains our largest employer. NEPAD has long recommended that African countries invest at least 1 percent of their agricultural GDP annually in R&D. For Nigeria, this translates to a range of between N395 billion and N904 billion ($279-$637 million). While these figures may seem daunting, they are minuscule compared to the widespread economic devastation caused by food inflation, which currently acts as a persistent tax on the poor and a drag on our national development.
strategic monopoly issue
Beyond mere stabilization, local R&D offers Nigeria a rare competitive advantage. Our geography and soil chemistry create production conditions that are radically different from the American Midwest or the Brazilian Cerrado.
Imported technologies often perform poorly because they are not “born” in our ecological reality. In contrast, locally generated knowledge constitutes a strategic monopoly. It is an asset that cannot be outsourced, easily replicated by competitors, or held hostage by global supply chain disruptions. This is the only way to transition from reactive crisis management to what I call “anticipatory economic governance.”
internalizing innovation
To build this ecosystem, we need to move beyond “just financing” conversations. We need radical institutional reform. Our public research institutions must be transformed from bureaucratic silos into high-performance innovation hubs. Extension systems must be digitalized to translate scientific outputs into practical, field-level guidance for smallholders.
Most importantly, the private sector must rethink its role. Relying on imported innovation is a form of strategic laziness. By internalizing R&D, building local research capacity, partnering with domestic universities, and investing in localized data experimentation, companies generate proprietary insights that strengthen their own margins while protecting the broader economy.
Conclusion: Cost of Postponement
Ultimately, the question is not whether Nigeria can invest in agricultural R&D, but whether it can afford the rising costs of neglect. Delayed innovation is not cost-free; It is a strategic risk with compound interest.
Unless we treat knowledge as a strategic asset rather than a discretionary input, our food security will remain fragile and our development will remain relevant. We must build a coordinated R&D ecosystem that is able to anticipate shocks rather than merely respond to them. In the race for food security, the winner is not the one who imports the most equipment, but the one who has the blueprint.
Oluwafemi Mayowa Olusola is the Opinion Pages Editor at BusinessDay. He writes provocative essays on youth development, governance and strategic partnerships in Nigeria, highlighting the intersections of education, economic policy and national transformation through practical and data-driven analysis.
