…world's second fastest decline globally
Nigeria has recorded the sharpest decline in passport power in Africa over the past two decades, highlighting how limited visa liberalisation, tightening global mobility rules and weak reciprocity agreements have steadily reduced travel access for Africa's most populous country.
Analysis of the Henley Passport Index (HPI) for January 2026 released on Tuesday shows that the country's passport ranking has declined by 27 places in 20 years, from 62nd at the time of the index's launch in 2006 to 89th out of 199 countries.
Also read: New British passport with King Charles coat of arms now in circulation
This decline is particularly impressive given Nigeria's recent, short-term recovery. From the January 2025 edition of the index, Nigeria climbed five places to 94th, marking a modest rebound that nevertheless fails to offset two decades of relative underperformance.
fall behind, not fall out
Created 20 years ago, the index ranks passports based on the number of destinations holders can reach either visa-free or with visa-on-arrival, using special statistical data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). While the top of the ranking has become increasingly crowded, countries at the bottom have become more isolated, widening the global mobility gap.
According to Henley & Partners, Nigeria's long-term decline reflects stagnation rather than a complete loss of access.
“Nigeria has seen its ranking decline over the past 20 years as it has added only nine destinations to its visa-free score during this period,” analysts at the London-based immigration investment consultancy firm said in an email to BusinessDay.
“The main reason for the decline in ranking is that other passports have significantly increased their visa-free access. It is more a case of not continuing to do so than losing access.”
In 2006, the average passport worldwide offered visa-free access to 58 destinations. By 2026, this figure will rise to 108, causing countries that failed to expand access to fall sharply down the ranking.
“Record numbers of people are expected to travel in 2026, driving the economic and social benefits of mobility,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General. “Yet for many nationalities, passports alone are no longer enough. As governments tighten borders, policymakers should not overlook technologies like digital IDs and digital passports, which can enable both secure borders and seamless travel.”
global paradox
When set against top performers the difference is stark. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the strongest climber on the index over the past 20 years, adding 149 visa-free destinations and jumping 57 places to 5th globally with access to 184 destinations.
Its rise has been driven by continued diplomatic engagement, aggressive visa liberalization and bilateral agreements.
Passport, which tops the rankings, has added destinations from 50 to nearly 150 in two decades. As consolidation at the top intensifies, countries that are not consistently expanding visa-free access are increasingly being left out.
Also read: FG to introduce biometric single travel emergency passport in 2026
Nigeria's uneven trajectory
Nigeria's passport performance has fluctuated over the years, reflecting broader diplomatic and global mobility trends. In the mid-2000s, its ranking was around the 60s, but it gradually declined as visa restrictions tightened and reciprocity agreements came to a halt.
By 2021, Nigeria had dropped to an all-time low of 103rd, indicating severely constrained travel freedom. This was followed by a marginal improvement – to 98th in 2022 and to 97th in 2023 – before reaching 89th in the 2026 rankings.
Africa's fourth-largest economy was not alone as Sierra Leone, Mali and Gambia recorded the second-biggest decline in Africa over the 20-year period, each falling 23 places to 74th, 82nd and 68th respectively. Mauritania, Guinea and Liberia then fell 21 places to 79th, 81st and 86th respectively.
Henley & Partners notes that recent changes to the eVisa system in countries such as Malawi, Mauritania, Somalia and Bolivia have caused many African passports to lose visa-free or visa-on-arrival access.
“Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Mali, Gambia, Guinea and Liberia have all lost access to some of these destinations,” the firm said. “More broadly, they are losing access simultaneously due to changes in visa policy and not actively working at the regional or global level to secure additional visa-free access for their citizens.”
A contradictory African story
While no African country has been included among the largest global emerging countries over the past 20 years, the United Arab Emirates and countries in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe like Rwanda have emerged as leaders in the list over the past decade. The East African country climbed 19 places to 70th place, making it among the top 10 global growers over the past 10 years.
Rwanda's progress reflects a thoughtful strategy. Tourism is a major economic pillar, and the country has steadily pursued visa openness and bilateral agreements.
“Over the past year, while many passports lost visa-free or VOA access to Somalia and Malawi, Rwanda gained or maintained access to both,” Henley & Partners said.
Also read: Nigerians with Golden Passports may still face ban on traveling to the US
big lesson
The firm argues that Africa has significant untapped potential to boost passporting power through regional openness, strong visa processes and credible due diligence frameworks supporting bilateral agreements.
“Ultimately, the data shows that passport power is not driven solely by history or democratic status. Instead, it is shaped by a mix of stability, peace, openness, economic strength, sustained diplomacy and mutual mobility policies – areas where Nigeria and many of its peers have struggled to keep pace over the past two decades.”
