Philippine stocks may start 2026 mostly sideways as trading activity is expected to be low due to the holidays and the market awaits developments on the national government's budget for the year.
On December 29, the last trading day of 2025, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) fell 0.21% or 12.72 points to close at 6,052.92. Meanwhile, the broader all-share index rose 0.24% or 8.58 points to 3,473.24.
Year to date, the PSEi was down 7.29% or 475.87 points from its 2024 closing high of 6,528.79.
Philippine financial markets were closed on December 30, December 31, and January 1 for the Rizal Day and New Year holidays.
F. Yap Securities investment analyst Marky Karunungan said the market is expected to start the year on a quiet note amid the holiday lull as trading resumes on Friday.
“For the first trading day of 2026, we expect the market to trade cautiously with a slight downside given the uncertainty caused by reduced holiday liquidity and the delay in signing the 2026 budget,” he said.
“While broad fundamentals point to a gradual recovery towards the end of the year, near-term sentiment may still remain fragile until there is clarity on fiscal execution.”
Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto said Tuesday that President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and his team are reviewing the 2026 General Appropriations Act (GAA) and the changes made by lawmakers. Mr. Marcos is expected to sign the GAA on January 5, forcing the country to work on a re-enacted budget in the first few days of 2026.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said players can take cues from the performance of other stock markets during the Philippine Exchange's three-day trading break.
“There is potential for a rally early in the year, depending on forecasts, particularly on anti-corruption reform measures and further improvement in governance standards – especially if these priority reform measures are taken seriously,” Mr. Ricafort said.
Meanwhile, for this year, analysts said the PSEI may continue to struggle to find its footing due to economic uncertainties.
Juan Paolo E. Collet, managing director of China Bank Capital Corp., said, “It is likely that if we see a sustained trend of GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate above 5% along with decisive action on governance issues, the market could reach around 6,600-6,700. Conversely, if economic growth stalls or fresh governance concerns emerge, the index could move to 5,600 or lower. There is a risk of that happening.”
AP Securities, Inc. Equity research analyst Shawn Ray R. “We expect the index to move sideways between the 6,000 and 6,400 range due to a number of headwinds such as a slowdown in manufacturing activity, softness in consumer spending and tightening in infrastructure delivery,” Atienza said. , Alexandria Grace C. Magno