(Part – 1)
In the last century, prophets of doom warned the entire world about the danger of the so-called population bomb or overpopulation. The greatest threat to humanity today is just the opposite. Just listen to American billionaire Elon Musk. He has been very vocal about his concern about the declining birth rate and what he sees as an impending “population collapse”. Today, declining population in many countries is a major problem for the future of civilization for Musk, rather than overpopulation.
Musk says that most people mistakenly think that there are too many people in the world. He argues that this approach is outdated and the bigger risk is that too few people are being born. He is constantly tweeting that “Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger threat to civilization than global warming.” He has repeatedly emphasized that there are not enough people in the world today and that if the birth rate continues to fall, civilization will be destroyed. Whether at actual events or when communicating online, he is urging people to “have more kids”, arguing that low fertility is a threat to economic and social stability.
Musk has said that parents should aim for about three children to compensate for those who do not have one or only one, otherwise the population will decline. It's really a no-brainer. If the mother and father die and there are no two children to replace them, the population will begin to decline. Musk points out that in many countries, especially in the developed world, fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 children per fertile woman. He does not consider it sustainable in the long term. If we look at history, he attributed the decline of civilizations like ancient Rome to the declining birth rate. He strongly rejects the so-called “popular wisdom” promoted by international agencies such as the World Bank that the planet is overpopulated. He refers to this propaganda as “the most nihilistic lie ever told”, arguing that the falling birth rate poses a real existential threat. He has described population decline as an existential problem and warned against allowing cultures or nations to “extinct” due to low fertility.
These dire warnings from one of the richest men on Earth could not be more applicable to Japan, Asia's richest country. As the year 2025 ended, the international press was fiNews from Japan showed the number of births in Japan was likely to fall below 670,000 – the lowest level since records began in 1899, and 16 years earlier than government forecasts had predicted. A Japanese demographer reported that total births in 2025 are likely to represent a 3% decline from 686,000 in 2024. This will mark 10th Consecutive year of record low birth rates. It is estimated that Japan is losing about 700,000 people every year.
Japan is not alone among rich countries suffering from record low birth rates. As reported by Valentina Romi financial TimesBirth rates in the world's rich economies have fallen by more than half since 1960, reaching record lows. According to a study by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the average number of children in 38 of the most industrialized countries is set to fall from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022. Fertility rates in all member countries of the group except Israel are now well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. “This downturn will change the face of societies, communities and families and potentially have a major impact on economic growth and prosperity,” the Paris-based organization warned.
Declining population clearly acts as a constraint on economic expansion. The most serious consequence will be labor shortage. Taken together with increasing life expectancy, lower birth rates obviously put pressure on public finances because they leave fewer people contributing the tax revenues needed to pay for the rising costs of an aging population. Due to lack of students, schools are closing on a large scale in these rich countries, especially Japan. These countries are trying their best to implement family-friendly policies, but as was the case with Asian countries such as Singapore and Japan, these policies are unlikely to increase the birth rate to replacement levels. The lowest fertility rates were recorded in Southern Europe (Spain and Italy) and Japan, at about 1.2 children per woman, while South Korea had a birth rate of about 0.7. The decline in birth rates is a big surprise in countries with extensive policies to support families, such as Finland, France and Norway. The OECD reported that the “second demographic transition”, a trend marked by a change in attitudes towards greater personal freedom and alternative life goals and living arrangements, helped explain the decline in family formation.
Countries in Asia and Africa such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Nigeria that are still enjoying their respective “demographic dividends” should learn lessons from developed countries that are struggling to stop their population decline and rapid ageing. Infertility among women born in 1975 has more than doubled in Italy, Spain and Japan compared to women born in 1955. In Austria, Germany, Italy and Spain, about 20% to 24% of women born in 1975 are childless. fiJaggery is increasing by 28% in Japan. Mothers across the OECD had, on average, this fiIn 2020, firstborns turned almost 30, up from the 2000 average of 26.5. fiIn Italy, Spain and South Korea the number of jaggery has exceeded 30.
The most important lessons for those who are still enjoying BenefiThe goal of the youth population is to remove all programs and policies that bear even the slightest resemblance to the anti-natalist measures popularized by the World Bank in the last century. Long before the transition from large to small families is a natural consequence of higher per capita incomes, society as a whole – government, business, civil society, and especially the academy – should be praising the institution of marriage and the benefits (psychological, social, and especially spiritual) of childbearing.
It is very clear that between 1980 and 2019, as columnist John Byrne Murdoch points out financial TimesMost developed countries have almost tripled per capita spending on child welfarefiTS, subsidized child care, parental leave and other family-friendly policies. The sad thing is that their birth rate per woman has decreased from 1.85 to 1.53. The main explanation given is that in these high-income societies the decision to have children is driven by more than how many fiFinancial incentives. Culture is more powerful than policy. For example, child-rearing practices have a significant impact on fertility rates. In 1965, mothers of young children in developed countries spent an average of more than an hour per day doing activities with their children. By 2018, this had increased to three hours and in Korea it reached four hours. Korea's fertility rate has fallen to 0.72, while in France, where parenting is much lower, the birth rate has remained good and is now at 1.8.
Among the existing steps to actively involve parents in their children's education, especially at the pre-school and primary school level, a concerted effort should be made to educate parents on how much discretionary time they should devote to helping their children in their educational pursuits and to avoid spoon-feeding their children by spending excessive time in coaching them. Their role is more important in shaping values and character – in which the role of parents is indispensable.
In fiAccording to the general analysis, the decision about whether and how many children to have is based on a spiritual conviction proceeding from religious belief that marriage and the children resulting from this “indissoluble institution” (to use a phrase taken from the 1987 Philippine Constitution) are mandated by the Creator himself.
(to be continued.)
Bernardo M. Villegas holds a Ph.D. Is. in economics from Harvard, is professor emeritus at the University of Asia and the Pacific, and visiting professor at the IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. He was a member of the Constitutional Commission of 1986.
bernardo.villegas@uap.asia