…Governor Yusuf going to APC does not guarantee victory in 2027 – Analyst
Political tension has escalated in Kano State following an apparent rift between New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) leader Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the state Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf over his alleged plan to join the All Progressives Congress (APC) and support President Bola Tinubu in his re-election bid.
According to reports, over the past few days, security presence has been strengthened around Government House amid reports that Governor Yusuf, a long-time supporter of Kwankwaso, is considering leaving the NNPP for the ruling party.
The defection, which was initially expected to take place immediately, has reportedly been postponed to January 12 to allow the governor to consult widely, especially with members of the Kano State Assembly.
Kwankwaso, speaking at the weekend, accused the governor of plotting to hand over Kano to former governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, who he claimed had previously saved the state.
Ganduje, a former national chairman of the APC and governor of the state, was once an ally of Kwankwaso before his political fall following the transition of power in 2015.
However, responding to the allegations, Media Adviser to the Governor, Sanusi Buture Dwakin Tofa (also known as Nagoda) said that Yusuf still holds Kwankwaso in high esteem.
“We still respect Kwankwaso and consider him our political leader,” he told reporters.
However, he suggested that Yusuf's reported move to the APC had become necessary, and expressed optimism that Kwankwaso would eventually support it.
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According to him, the Governor is the chief security officer of Kano State.
It is unfortunate that he will give security instructions and the police will say that they are waiting for instructions from someone outside Kano.
He also referred to the long-running Emirate crisis in the state, recalling the incident where the convoy of the 14th Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, was allegedly stoned while passing by the Nasarawa Palace where the 15th Emir, Aminu Addo Bayero resides.
“Such incidents should not happen,” he said, adding that joining APC could help restore stability and improve the well-being of Kano residents.
On Kwankwaso's opposition to the alleged defection, Nagoda said, “We are praying that he will relent and move towards APC.”
Meanwhile, the planned move has also sparked debate within the APC.
Abdul Majid Danbilki Kwamanda, a prominent party figure in Kano, claimed that both Kwankwaso and Yusuf were jointly planning the defection.
In a video circulated on social media, Kwamanda said nothing but death will come between Abba and Kwankwaso.
He said the move was a strategic political arrangement, alleging that Kwankwaso was sending Yusuf to APC to secure a second term while his deputy Aminu Abdul Salam would remain in the NNPP to contest the election.
“So whoever Kano wins, it is a victory for Kwankwaso,” he said.
Speaking with BusinessDay, a chieftain of the NNPP, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there was no justification for Governor Yusuf joining the ruling party to win a second term given the popularity of the government and the Kwankwasia movement in the state.
He said the governor should think about the implications of the bad relationship with Kwankwaso who supported him at a time when the APC was doing everything possible to bring him down.
“It is shameful that after all the support we have given him he is still considering going to APC even when they were doing everything possible to remove him once he wins in 2023.
“The people of Kano stood by him and that is how he wants to reward us. It is a shame, but we must wait and see the end of this,” the source said.
Governor Yusuf's move to APC does not guarantee his victory in 2027 – Analyst
Meanwhile, Philip Ikechukwu, a political analyst, told BusinessDay that with the rising popularity of the APC in Kano State in recent months, Governor Yusuf may fear that he will not secure his re-election in 2027 if he remains in the NNPP.
However, the political analyst warned that given the unpredictability of Kano politics and the influence of Kwankwaso and Kwankwasia at the grassroots level in the state, Governor Yusuf's defection to the ruling party may not guarantee his victory in 2027.
According to him, apparently, Governor Yusuf has been wooed and promised all sorts of things to join the ruling party, just like we are seeing governors of other states going to APC.
“But don’t forget that the APC previously ruled that state and they lost in 2023. In 2019, the governorship election was also not easy, it was rushed and we saw it was disputed with the NNPP claiming they were looted and rigged,” the analyst said.
Speaking further, he said that if the people's votes are allowed to be counted, Kano State could go either way in 2027.
“The APC has not had it easy in Kano in recent years like it has in Lagos, so the governorship election and other elections may be unpredictable right now, but if the people’s votes are counted it could go either way,” he said.
